S&P 500 Futures Market Outlook - Trends and Levels ES MES

Market Update 5/14 9:45 AM Pacific.

We opened and quickly rallied, potentially moving toward the major resistance level at 4166.75.

The fib fans have been very helpful to see why price is move the way it is.

The trade is very slow today now and going into the weekend, we may potentially see lower volume with the random moves here and there.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/14 Closing. ES Mini Futures.

The market closed near the highs at 4176.00. In the previous post I pointed out the fib fan from the low and high on 5/13.

Today, priced closely followed the 61.8 fib fan shown here:

With the market trading above the key level at 4166.75, we will watch for buyers supporting that level or by strengthening the bid, or if they come off it as price comes down.

On the hourly, we have some key resistance levels:

Have a great weekend and we will see you Monday!

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/17 9:30 AM Pacific.

Market opened and quickly rallied to 4167.00 before selling off and testing the lows of 4130.00.

On the daily charts, we can see that price has come off the up move and retraced to the 23.6% fib line.

For the short side, sellers may have potentially sold the breakdown area of 4174.00. If price moves up and starts to test this again, sellers may have to puke which would drive price up further.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/17 11:00 AM Pacific.

At the open yesterday, we made a high near 4178.50. From there price has fallen to the current price at 4142.00.

It has followed a downtrend with multiple touch points.

Now, with price trading below the breakdown area of 4144.50, we will see how sellers trade this level.

The open on Friday was 4135.00. Price may potentially gravitate to this area for a retest.

Here is the DOM surface showing some resting orders at that price.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/17 12:20 PM Pacific.

As the day continued to play out, the trendline we referenced in the last post was broken and buyers were able to force some sellers out of their position, driving price to 4160.00.

Price came off that level to 4155.00.

The longer term on the hourly shows another trendline price has reached on the most recent rally.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/17 Close ES Mini Futures.

Today’s trade was interesting and seemed to be choppy, indecisive.

Formed a range after the sell-off and then did a fakeout to the downside, reversed.

The fib fan provided some good references for support and resistance.

Back to the overall picture, hourly is coming up on a trendline that may potentially be resistance at and around 4163.50.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/18 9:45 AM Pacific.

We opened and quickly sold to the trendline we referenced yesterday. Price tested this level, retraced and tested again.

There is a double top at 4179.00 which price reacted to.

We will wait to see how price reacts if it comes to test the trendline again.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/18 12:25 PM Pacific.

The market sold off to support at 4135.00 after forming a range and retesting resistance.

In the morning post we pointed out the trendline that was coming down from the highs on 5/7/2021.

Watching these levels and how buyers and sellers behaved here was key in identifying that buyers were giving up.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/19 9:15 AM Pacific.

The market opened and sold to the lows at 4055.00. On the 5-minute chart, it formed a double bottom then ground up to the price now at 4089.00.

There was resistance at 4086.00 which it is currently trading above. There is also some support at 4090.00.

The buyers have been in control so far today. Until that changes, it appears that potentially price may continue to respond to the upside.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/24 7:15 AM Pacific.

The market opened and quickly rallied to the high of 4188.25.

Remember, the 4171.75 level was a significant breakdown level on 5/10. We have breached that to the upside and are testing 4187.00 resistance.

If price continues to move up, here are some potential targets sellers may be looking to cover at or even sell as a new position.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 10:55 AM Pacific.

The market is currently at the high of the day near 4201.25.

The trade is very very slow right now with volume completely drying up. It appears as if the buyers were trying to push price up but there was clearly no interest from day traders indicated by the Footprint chart.

The POC drawn above shows that the majority of trades were sold at the offer. This could still turn out bad for the sellers if price continues up, leaving sellers squeezed and potentially triggering stops.

However, if buyers cannot keep price propped up they will also be having to exit their position if price breaks below support at 4199.50.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 4:00 PM Pacific.

The open rallied for six 15-minute bars. Eight including the two bars before the open. After the initial rally it was grinding and flipping prices.

There didn’t seem to be any direction after the move, but we have now started to form a readable range on the 5-minute chart:

Price is moving up along the 61.8 fib fan, 4 points away from testing the high of the day.

If we see price continue to drift north, the fib price extension levels are below.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/25 Before the Open.

The overnight range was very small. 4204.00 to 4213.00 roughly.

Today we will see how buyers and sellers are approaching the market.

Here are potential levels to be looking out for:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/25 11:35 AM Pacific.

After the morning sell-off the market stabilized around 4195.00, then continued down to reach a low of 4182.50.

Currently trading near those lows.

If price continues to move down, here are the fib retracement levels that price has responded to.

At the 4195.00 level we saw huge absorption from buyers that held up price for 30 minutes. With this being a visible level before price reached it, then seeing the amount of buying there, it was a good opportunity to join the bids and rely on support holding.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/26 7:00 AM Pacific.

The overnight range was well established and at the open we started to sell-off.

Here are the potential levels we will be looking at today.

Where price is now, coming back up to the 4193.00 area, will serve as resistance until broken to the upside.

This is a retest of the original breakdown.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 1:35 PM Central.

As we go into the final 90 minutes of trading, the market continues to lack volume and volatility. Relatively uneventful day, but you never know what the close will bring.

It appears that the recent price move up is testing the previous support at 4195.25.

The TPO chart shows a naked POC at 4162.50.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 7:00 AM Central.

About two hours before the open, price was trading near 4181.00. Buyers have pushed it up to 4209.00 and now is trading above the 4202.00 level.

On the hourly chart, here are the two major levels that appear to be affecting price.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

ES Mini - 8/24/2021 - Few things I need to keep practicing…

I noticed that when I’m looking for something very specific in the market, I can typically find it. When I plan my day and keep that as a top priority, I can find it consistently.

So this is just a note for myself, and anyone else, who needs that reminder of what to look for, and how to look for it.

When I enter a trade, I’m looking for the following:

  1. An obvious level that I believe market participants will respond to.
  2. Bullish at support - I’m looking for bids to hold up and appear strong, selling to dry up, and other indexes to hold any significant support as well.
  3. Bearish at support - I’m looking for bids to be skittish, more uncertainty, selling to stay consistent, offers to chase price down when it breaks.
  4. Spike in volume that signifies increased activity at specified level.

Bullish at resistance, and Bearish at resistance would be the same just flipped on the bids/offers and buying/selling, etc.

Here’s what I’ve added to my charts to help identify volume spikes:

Here’s the 30 second version as well:

The step profile has really helped me identify volume areas where price tends to react to.

For watching the buying and selling, I’m still using a footprint chart, but also added a step profile of delta.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.