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S&P 500 Futures Market Outlook - Trends and Levels ES MES

Market Update 5/3 Monday.

The market opened and traded near the top of the range, then sold off down to 4186.00. From there we have bounced up and currently trading near 4189.25.

It appears we are forming a range between 4186.00 and 4190.00. There is a slight uptrend line that will potentially intersect at 4188.75 but not until 11 PM Pacific.

On the hourly charts, price is following a few uptrend lines shown here:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Close 5/3 Monday.

The overall range for the day was between 4202.00 and 4181.00. Trade was slightly choppy with some quicker moves, but overall ranging.

There is a bigger range at play from 4/26 at 4183.50, which was resistance turned support. A valid breakout below this level may potentially lead price to 4166.75.

A broader look at the 15 minute chart shows a continued uptrend and price trading at some potentially key levels.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/4 Tuesday 11:15 Pacific.

Market opened and quickly sold off below big support at 4171.00.

Currently, price is retracing to the 50% fib retracement.

There is a trendline price is almost hitting that may potentially provide resistance for short traders.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/4 Post Close.

We opened and sold off to the lows at 4120.25. Since then price continued up, eventually squeezing any short positions out.

Let’s start with the daily charts. From the very bottom of this longer term move up, price is sitting at the 23.6% retracement line. We have only touched it once based on this fib, however, plays a more important support level with price staying above that since 4/9.

There’s two major things at play here:

  1. We just broke a major support level at 4171.00 area.
  2. That level also corresponded with a long-standing trendline in blue (or purple I’m colorblind).

So we have two valid breakouts to the downside from these two support/trend lines.

Here’s the daily charts with a 123 possible setup.

The target would potentially be 4071.00 which is the 38.2% fib retracement of this long-term move and another support level.

However, the bulls have been strong lately and they could very likely continue to drive price up, squeezing more short positions out of the market.

On a longer scale, here are the potential upside areas to watch.

On the 15 minute chart, we can see price coming back to the break-down area of 4171.25 and testing it. We will see how overnight trading moves price and how the open will process this price action.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/5 8:15 Pacific.

We opened and sold off to 4153.00. Now price is back at the 4171.00 area where we originally broke down from. Buyers appear to be in control for now, but this is a spot where sellers need to step up to see if price is going to come down further.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/5 10:15 Pacific.

After the sell-off, price move back up into the breakdown range, up to 4179.

However, price has come off those levels and is again below the 4171.00 level again. Buyers and sellers will be battling here to see where price will go.

Essentially, the breakdown of 4171.00 is still valid if price stays below this area.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Close 5/5 Wednesday 2:30 Pacific.

Sellers attempted to move price down right at the open and it quickly retraced to the high of the day around 4180.00. Sellers did not come back until later in the day, leaving price near 4160.00.

This is the 38.2% fib retracement level from the low of yesterday to the high of today.

It appears this level may be an important support level to get below if sellers want to see any follow-through.

The 4171.00 is still in play while keeping in mind short positions from this level longer term may have set stops above this range at 4200.00.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

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Market Update 5/6 Thursday 7:45 Pacific.

After the open we sold off to 4141.00. It rejected that move and is now back at the original breakdown of 4155, also the overnight low.

If bulls cannot push price above this then a retest of the lows may potentially be played out.

Price broke above the 4148.00 level and went straight to the ONL and breakdown area.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

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Market Update 5/6 Thursday 9:30 Pacific.

After the consolidation of price at the lows between 4145.00 and 4155.00, price rallied to a high of 4180.00 and and came off to 4170.00, which was the original breakdown on 5/4.

On the hourly chart, here is the original breakdown view of the 4171.00 level.

We still need to see what participants are going to do at this level to find a direction in the market.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/6 1:00 Pacific.

On the retrace from the sell-off this morning, price rallied to 4183.75.

It has hit a significant trendline with multiple touches over the last few months. We seem to be following this up.

Price is finishing near 4195.00 as sellers puked.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/7 Friday 9:15 Pacific.

The market opened and quickly rallied despite non-farm payroll and unemployment coming in below expectations.

While this shows strength in the market, the move up may potentially be inflated.

We will be watching the buyers to stop defending their position for any move down today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

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Market Update 5/7 Friday 12:15 Pacific.

Price has stayed near the highs today as we approach the closing bell. With the weekend coming, we will be watching for traders liquidating their position.

There is still good buying interest at these prices and volume is coming into the market as we approach the close.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/10 8:15 Pacific.

Market opened and formed consolidation with a base near 4223.50. We broke below that to the low of 4124.00 and are retracing back to the initial breakdown area.

Potentially, there may be sellers ready to sell the breakdown area near 4223.50 and we will see how buyers react there.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/10 10:15 Pacific.

From the low of the move today, we rallied to 4230.00 and retraced back to the 61.8 fib line. Price has bounced off that and price is trading at 4220.50.

For price to make any upwards move, buyers will have to defend this area and maintain price there.

Here is the for potential stops of short positions:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/11 9:15 Pacific.

Yesterday the market sold off from 4230.00 to 4149.00 (overnight session) and rallied to 4155.00 at the open before selling to lows at 4105.00.

Switching from range trading to trending can be difficult, but by looking at the right spots to enter we can identify some good risk/reward trades with the trend.

Here were the 4 areas where entries were very textbook:

When a level breaks and price comes back to test that, it’s a perfect opportunity to enter with calculated risk and reward.

We can clearly see price reacting to the old support and resistance levels.

FOMO can kick in but by remembering that participants need to cover their position at some point we can rely on classic price action to find good entries.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/12 9:15 Pacific.

The market opened at the lower end of the range we started forming late in the day Monday. The breakdown area was 4110.75 and are currently trading around 4081.00.

If the market follows a structure similar to Monday’s trade, we can potentially expect price to sell off then retrace to the broken support areas (now resistance).

Until the market violates this with dedication, it appears the sellers are still dominating the market.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Market Update 5/12 Wednesday 1:00 PM Pacific.

After the sell off today, we formed a range between 4072.50 and 4082.50. There was a dip below that reaching 4066.00.

Going into the last hour, I will tread lightly when volume comes in as there may be another sell off to test the lows of the day.

Here is a recent trendline that price reacted to.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

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