S&P 500 Futures Market Outlook - Trends and Levels ES MES

Ben_M · April 20, 2021, 3:10pm

Market Update 4/20/21 Tuesday.

The market sold off in our sell-scenario. Price came down to the 4130.50 level.

We retraced at the open to 4150.75 then sold off into a range. After a few times of testing both the high and low of the range, sellers were able to push it down and it reached out 38.2% fib retracement level at 4122.00.

Here is the 30 second chart showing the bounce off the fib level at 4122.002.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 20, 2021, 5:20pm

Market Update 4/20 Tuesday 10:15 AM Pacific.

We have established the low for now at 4110.50. Running a fib we see that price retraced up to the 38.2 level and has formed a range from there.

We will be watching the edges of the range for a few things:

High volume at the high or low to monitor the potential for a breakout.
Buying and selling behavior at the edges to form ideas to trade the range or trade a breakout.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 20, 2021, 6:40pm

Market Update 4/20 Tuesday - Morning Trade Session Video.

Currently price is hovering just above the 4114.00 price level. We just sold off from the high of a range at 4125.25.

If the market is going to test the lows, which it appears may be in sight, we will watch volume and order flow to determine if another sell off is in order.

Morning Trading Video.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 21, 2021, 2:39pm

Market Update 4/21 Wednesday.

We opened near the lows today and quickly rallied to 4145.25.

This level we rallied from is also the the 38.2 retracement level from the daily chart.

If the buyers are going to control the market today we will need to see price respect support areas.

Until the market shows that it doesn’t it appears that buyers may potentially control the auction today.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 21, 2021, 4:53pm

Market Update 4/21 Wednesday 10:00 AM Pacific.

The market has rallied to 4153.50 then pulled back to 4148.75. It is trading just below the bullish break of 4151.00. If this is a false breakout to the upside, price should remain below the breakout level with clear evidence that sellers are coming into the market while buyers back off.

This could also be consolidation before another rally with an initial target at 4160.25, which was the breakout line to the downside from yesterday.

Another thing to keep in mind is the trend channel on the 15-minute chart. We are trading at the high of that channel.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 21, 2021, 11:32pm

Market Update 4/21 Wednesday After Close.

After lunch, the market held in a range for some time before rallying again to the high of about 4166.50.

We could see the buying pressure in our Footprint chart, especially at the tops of the ranges.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 22, 2021, 5:13pm

Market Update 4/22 Thursday.

The market opened with very little action and quickly formed a range. As London closed, price sold off about 10 points then immediately retraced back into the range.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 23, 2021, 12:28am

Market Update 4/22 Thursday After Close.

The market was very slow just after open waiting for a speech from Biden.

Price sold off quickly to 4135.00 then retraced to 4151.00. Sellers continued to hit the bid and price fell to a low of 4116.00.

It was a quick move but still had some opportunity on a retrace.

There is the big picture today with price respecting key levels.

This is a fib retracement drawing on the sell-off as it hit it’s second low:

It shows that price retraced to 4151.00, the 38.2 retracement line, then continued to sell and make another low.

4151.00 happens to also bee the bottom of the morning range.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 23, 2021, 3:21pm

Market Update 4/23 Friday 8:21 AM Pacific.

We opened and immediately started rallying to yesterday’s top of range around 4167.25.

Buyers have dominated the auction all morning so far and until we can clearly see them back off, price may potentially continue to pullback to support levels then be bought up.

Potential stops above 4173.25 and 4185.00.

We are currently at significant resistance and will continue to watch if sellers are going to start absorbing the buying.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 26, 2021, 2:41pm

Market Outlook 4/26 to 4/30.

Trade last week turned out to be very active. This week we will watch our levels and see how the market reacts to continuing to trade at the all time highs.

The daily chart shows that we have moved back into this trend channel after a pullback from the ATH. Price only came down to the 38.2 fib retracement and now is in a larger range from 4124.00 to 4175.00.

We opened and rallied to about 4185.00 before developing a range we are currently in.

Trading near the highs we will need to be quick to respond to any breakouts or puking.

Trading Plan.

We will be observing what state the market is in and who is controlling the auction overall. From this we will develop trade ideas and use order flow to verify or disprove our trade ideas.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 26, 2021, 6:09pm

Market Update 4/26 Monday 11:15 am Pacific.

Price has spent some time near the low of the range at 4177.00. We have since moved up to 4182.50 as a result of the sellers not being able to push it lower below the bottom range.

If sellers continue to lose the auction while buyers are in control, price may potentially continue to move up testing the upper range and possibly triggering stops.

If the break above 4174.00 continues, it’s easy to see the natural retest at 4177.00. However, it seems that it’s possible sellers are not done trying to push it lower to see if the momentum is there.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 27, 2021, 5:50pm

Market Update 4/27 Tuesday.

We quickly sold off at the open down to 4167.00. Price has retraced since then and is trading at 4179.00 currently.

The move back up to 4181.00 is around the 50% retracement.

Now price is coming off down to 4176.50.

It is trading in a range and very choppy.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 28, 2021, 1:57am

Market Outlook 4/28 Wednesday.

The trade today was interesting. Quick sell-off then a choppy range-trending price action. If that’s even a thing.

So, now we are trading near the highs of 4185.00 after following a strong trendline up.

Here’s a look at the 15 minute chart.

Update coming in the morning before open.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 28, 2021, 2:15pm

Market Update 4/28 Wednesday.

Market opened and formed a quick range. Buyers seem to be in control and breakouts to the upside have been retested and support has held.

However, there are some larger offers at 4188.00 which may cause some resistance for buyers.

Number coming out at 2 pm Eastern.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 28, 2021, 3:30pm

Market Update 4/28 Wednesday 8:30 Pacific.

We are currently trading in a range between 4181.00 and 4185.00. Buyers took price up above that range briefly before it fell back into the range and tested the lows.

A few trendlines are playing their part in price action as well.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 29, 2021, 1:51pm

Market Update 4/29 Thursday.

The market traded in a range yesterday before the fed announcement, then broke up to rally new highs.

Price seems to be following the two trendlines on the hourly charts:

On the 15 minute chart, here are the potential levels price needs to test/break before any significant move.

Here’s a more granular breakdown on the 5 minute chart.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 29, 2021, 4:19pm

Market Update 4/29 Thursday 9:15 Pacific.

Roughly 30 minutes after the open, price started to come off and test levels of support. The sell off wasn’t as rapid as it was when it fell 4186.00, which triggered stops and got buyers out of their longs.

Price fell below 4171.75 then retraced above that level. This potentially may be a significant level that buyers will defend and bid on.

Here’s the latest chart:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · April 30, 2021, 2:50pm

Market Update 4/30 Friday 7:45 Pacific.

Overnight session rallied to highs then came off, we opened near the support area and price has moved up since then.

Currently appears to be trading in a range with no direction.

Now we are testing the 4180.00.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · May 1, 2021, 4:24am

Market Recap 4/30 Friday.

Today’s trade started off ranging then sellers came through and broke support. Here’s the first look:

At the open price was right at a significant support level which held, rallying price 9 points. It ranged for about an hour before breaking through the support at 4180.00 to 4171.25.

Market closed right where it opened, which is potentially building up positions with key stop levels.

There are traders constantly taking positions based on multiple time frames. Over time many will exit or get stopped out, but the longer price stays within ranges, the more positions are accumulated.

The last few weeks we have been trading in ranges within ranges while still respecting major support and resistance. A break of these may potentially result in more volatile moves.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · May 3, 2021, 2:25pm

Market Update 5/3 Monday.

We opened above strong support at 4183.50 and currently trading above that still.

Market may potentially be strong if buyers can hold these support levels.

We will be watching buyers and sellers at these levels to determine the strength of the market.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.