S&P 500 Futures Market Outlook - Trends and Levels ES MES

Ben_M · February 9, 2021, 5:08pm

ES Mini is trading up near top of channel on hourly charts.

IF* the top of the move is 3913.50, fib retracement levels are set on chart. Still in uptrend but it’s trading back and forth pretty well, good for range trading and scalping.

Short term trades I’m going long and short, longer term is looking for short trades only.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · February 12, 2021, 9:03pm

Weekly recap of charts for ES Mini.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · February 12, 2021, 9:32pm

I’ve posted a video on order flow entry and live trading with cluster charts on a new thread, here is the link!

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · February 12, 2021, 9:44pm

Also, here is video from today’s trading on cluster charts.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · February 16, 2021, 5:43pm

Hi everyone!

Here’s a quick update on the ES Mini charts:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · February 17, 2021, 9:43pm

Post market close Wednesday 2/17 ES Mini.

Today we traded down then retraced up to the 3926.00 level which is potential resistance for short traders.

Keep in mind that overall we are still trending up but near the top of the price channel.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

greg · February 21, 2021, 6:08am

Ben, I’ve been watching your videos and am interested in learning to trade using the cluster chart footprint. I’m fairly new to futures and was a little overwhelmed with some of the volume analysis options initially, but I think I’m ready to start devoting the time to learn how to incorporate some of those tools into my trading. Any advice on how to go about starting the learning process with these tools (footprint specifically)? I’ve obviously started by reading what comes up on Google, but sometimes hard to know what is reliable. Thanks. I appreciate the content you’ve been contributing.

Greg

Ben_M · February 21, 2021, 6:28am

Thanks @greg! Glad you are liking the posts.

What do you typically trade? I have a video I’m editing on how to incorporate chart analysis with order flow and footprint charts to optimize entries and validate/disprove trade ideas. It should be done Sunday.

I’m also finding it challenging, but still possible, to pinpoint exactly what topics and questions to address in the videos because trading styles differ from trader to trader.

The good news is that I’m going to be having a webinar with some broad topics on footprint charts and also Q & A.

In addition, I was thinking it would be beneficial to have an open room to all Optimus users in the morning to collaborate, ask each other about ideas and strategies.

I’ll confirm with Matt and if it’s possible I’ll post times and days it’s open with the necessary links.

I’m Pacific time and usually don’t trade until 8:30 my time but want to start earlier if there’s enough interest.

Does that sound like something you think would be beneficial?

greg · February 21, 2021, 10:06pm

Thanks for the response Ben. The video you described that you are currently working on sounds great, I’m looking forward to it. Sounds like what I’m looking to learn.

I’ve only traded index futures. I started with the NQ because that’s what my dad trades and he introduced me to futures, but I’ve found the ES is probably more my style. Had some initial success, but struggles of late have me wanting to understand volume analysis more. The webinar you mentioned sounds very interesting.
I’m PST too, but have limited trading time. Mostly 630-730 before I have to go to work. I’d be up for trying the open room idea you mentioned if times worked out. I’ve never done anything like that but would be up for giving it a try.

Ben_M · February 23, 2021, 1:28am

Here is a quick video on how we can use order flow to validate or disprove trade ideas.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

colosean · February 23, 2021, 3:58am

@Ben_M - Good video, thanks! Your explanation of what you’re seeing in the footprint chart helps me understand it a bit more.

Ben_M · February 23, 2021, 4:18am

Hi @greg, that sounds good. I’m discussing logistics with Matt on the open room.

I actually started trading Nasdaq when I first started as well but that’s when the ES book was super thick. Sometimes the inside market would have 3-4 thousand contracts on the bid and offer, made it difficult to scalp.

I’ll keep you posted on what we come up with for the room or Q&A!

Ben_M · February 23, 2021, 4:23am

Thanks @colosean!

Like Matt said, it’s hard to explain what we see because so much is pattern recognition and in many cases subconscious.

I do believe that the footprint chart can really help identify areas of tension between buyers and sellers. But it’s still a lot of watching and seeing how it trades.

Ben_M · February 26, 2021, 2:46pm

Currently waiting to see how the market is going to trade today.

Looks like ES is sitting on some support but after yesterday I’m pretty hesitant either way.

It’s also trading very thing right now, something to be aware of in terms of volatility.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

pillayice · February 26, 2021, 7:27pm

Thank you Ben, your video’s have helped me fine tune my cluster charts.

Ben_M · March 8, 2021, 6:31pm

Here’s a quick outlook of the market for this week.

I plan to increase my intent with every trade and really be able to describe why I take the trades I do, then properly analyze them for review.

As I always say, the levels and channels that are drawn on long term charts play a significant role in identifying potential areas for opportunity.

The -25 degree line on this chart was drawn weeks ago and it has held up on retraces.

The 15 minute chart shows an unfilled gap with price being at a potential resistance level:

The 5000 tick Footprint chart shows some minor resistance in the short term. We will be watching order flow to determine entry points and potential moves.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · March 9, 2021, 4:54am

I realized that I have not updated my charts and levels lately. I went through and kind of cleaned it up, here’s the video version:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · March 22, 2021, 6:04pm

Trading plan 3/22/21 Monday.

Monday 3/22/21.

Mental prep:

I am feeling happy today, I feel rested and that my mind is clear and content.

I will observe information from the market and develop trades around my daily plan without having my emotions or bias affect how I trade. I can make great decisions and in the even a trade doesn’t go my way, I will assess what happened and if I would make the same trade again.

Depending on that outcome I will change my strategy or execution or keep it the same.

Daily plan:

I see a range forming with no clear direction in the market besides the overall uptrend.

I’ll be looking to take advantage of quick pricing inefficiencies and focus on order flow to take quick moves out without risking too much.

I’m going to watch the 1 minute charts a bit more today as well as the order flow that coincides with that time frame on my 2000 tick chart.

The one big thing I’m also focusing on is holding my trades longer which will force me to really pick my spots and be aware of when I choose to enter the market.

Market and self-assessment:

I’m already seeing that the market is trading slow and choppy. There is a ton of size on each price with constant reloads, making it difficult to read the order flow.

I’m going to be very careful in choosing my spots and looking for more long term tension in the market rather than those one or two tick price flips.

This will mean I trade less today which is not necessarily my style but it’s what the market is giving me.

I see some selling pressure here at 3939.00. Well, lack of buying follow through. It’s still trading slow but I’m watching this area to see where I can enter.

Not seeing follow through on the upside. Had an order to sell at 3939.00 which is not filled yet.

I missed my sell order, but price came down to a level of support and sellers who sold didn’t see much movement. Price popped a few points and the sellers who had to exit and become buyers allowed for a quick point on the upside.

Still trying to get short at a better spot. I’m seeing that buyers are interested but I am struggling to see the follow through which makes me still OK with looking for spots to sell.

Finally got my bearings straight a bit and got a comfortable long position with little heat.

Waiting for the buyers to show themselves more and looking for exit around 3943.00.

I saw sellers not being able to drive price down further which attracted buyers to come back into the market.

It’s still a super slow grind but the long term order flow seems to be playing out the way it “should” or makes sense.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · March 22, 2021, 6:41pm

Still trying to get short at a better spot. I’m seeing that buyers are interested but I am struggling to see the follow through which makes me still OK with looking for spots to sell.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

Ben_M · March 23, 2021, 6:36pm

Trading plan 3/23/21 Tuesday.

Yesterday’s trade was choppy, I was able to change my approach to deal with it but today I’ll be careful to watch how the trade has changed if it has at all.

I’m also going to be using the DOM surface today to identify areas of liquidity to find my entries but also look to see where the move could go if it does go in my direction.

Mental Prep:

Today I feel clear and content. Sun is out and I woke up looking forward to the trade.

I have a plan today. I know I can carefully pick my spot and maximize my effectiveness. I’m self-aware and monitoring my emotions and needs, my internal dialogue.

I took extra time to plan my day and be aware of what the market is telling me.

Market and self-assessment:

The market is not trading like it was yesterday, I like this and I’m expecting I’ll be able to see the order flow a bit clearer than yesterday.

Self awareness is telling me that I’m open to receive information freely and objectively to use that in conjunction with my trading plan.

Here’s a look at the DOM surface I’ll be watching:

These areas HAVE to coincide with my overall trading plan.

My overall trading plan is to trade with the trend (I’m seeing a short-term uptrend) so I’ll be looking for areas to buy off support.

Here is the video from today’s trading session. Please post any questions.

As you can see from the later part of trading I’m biased to the upside. This falls in line with my strategy buy my entry was very very early.

I held with it because of my overall win/loss and the potential for the up move (in my opinion).

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.