S&P 500 Futures Market Outlook - Trends and Levels ES MES

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/12/21 Monday.

Sellers are pushing price lower to overnight support levels. We will watch buyers at those levels to see how they respond.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update.

The quick move down was just that, quick. Price has moved right back into the trend line drawn before the open.

If the market is indeed going to continue the uptrend it will have to keep respecting support levels and make higher lows.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Bhupinderjhajj]

@Ben_M

uying has been interesting to watch lately. I believe on Fr

Hey Ben!

How do you monitor large passive buying. I really am having a hard time grasping this. I find a-lot of what I read turns out to be contradictory. For ex: If we’re at resistance, and we’re seeing large bid volume at the high of the bar. I always took this as an indication that the shorts were building a wall. However this can also indicate passive buying right? So like how do you interpret this information?

Thank-you

[Ben_M]

Great question, and can be a very frustrating one.

Your hunch that it can be contradictory is accurate, that’s because it depends on the situation.

Here’s the 2000 tick chart from 12:22 today. Price came up to 4115.75 and stopped due to heavy absorption from the offer.

This was an iceberg order that just kept on filling up, moving price down 8 ticks before continuing up.

There are probably many opinions on what this is. We don’t necessarily want to determine what it is or isn’t, but how to use the information to make better decisions for trades.

To do that we need to look at what the market is/was doing.

Price had sold off to form a range, it looked like it was going to make lower lows but then rallied to the top of the range a few ticks through it (4115.75 area), then stopped here with that order.

Maybe it is longs getting out of their trade, or a big short position. We will never know. However, if we are seeing the sentiment change in the market where buyers started dominating we could use this to our advantage. Something like:

I see a lot of selling here, passive selling. I’m still biased to be long, so I’m going to wait for a retest of the range or bottom of the range to enter and watch this level if price reaches it again.

At that point, I may exit or ride a rally with potentially added volume from short traders covering.

That’s about the best we can do!

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/13/21 Tuesday.

At 4:00 AM Pacific time price dropped to 4101.25 then grinded back to the highs at 4126.50. We are currently trading in a range that seems to be sensitive to selling activity, making lower highs on the 5 minute.

We will watch to see if sellers can push price lower that may potentially force buyers to puke, pushing price to lower support levels.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update Trading Into Close.

ES Mini Futures just hit a new all time high at 4139.75. Price pulled back to 4136.75.

We will see how buyers respond to price as it approaches the recent high again.

Note - 10 mins before 1 PM Pacific starts to get a bit wild with algos and traders exiting positions.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/14/21 Wednesday.

ES Mini Futures opened up at the lows and immediately rallied to new highs at 4144.00. On the 5 minute chart bars had a wide range of up to 5 points with price action going in various directions with no clear pattern.

Right now the market is in a clear range and trade opportunities should be trading the range until there is clear evidence that buyers or sellers have the momentum to push price out of the range.

There is a nice trendline that is currently holding on the 15 minute chart, continuing to push price up. That will need to be broken with volume to turn to the downside.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update Going Into Close 4/14/21 Wednesday.

ES Mini Futures broke the bottom of the range that was established during morning trade. Price fell from 4133.00 to 4116.00 very quickly. Retraced to the 61.8 fib level and sold off again making new lows at 4113.00.

Approaching the close we saw some covering which has price trading at the 4123.00 level.

Hard to say what kind of price action we will see going into the close. Watching our levels and order flow at the support and resistance levels.

Earlier we plotted a few trend lines on the hourly chart. Here’s where price came to on the sell-off:

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Recap Wednesday 4/14/21.

The trade today had a lot of movement and opportunity. We opened at the low then rallied to form a range between 4133.00 and 4139.75.

The big sell-off occurred at 10:55 am pacific time. Price spent 20 minutes near the low of the range with some pullback to the upside, but ultimately the sellers were able to push it down triggering stops and puking.

The initial low was 4116.00 then later dropped to 4113.25 for the day’s low.

Trading Session Video.

Below is the morning trade then the afternoon trade going into the close.

My trading this morning was extremely volatile and not in sync with my plan or the market conditions. I took a break with a small short position near the high of the morning range that developed to capture the big move down.

- YouTube

- YouTube

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/15/21 Thursday 9:00 am Pacific.

The market opened and formed support at 4142.00 before rallying to new highs at 4159.25. Currently, we have pulled back to 4152.25 and buyers have held up price putting in support levels.

Trading strategy for the day is to trade ranges and watch for evidence of any breakout to the upside.

Here is the channel we drew yesterday morning before the selloff. Price respected these levels very nicely to continue the uptrend.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/15/21 Thursday.

We are trading about 6 ticks away from the high and it is grinding up.

The market could be forming a range here if buyers can’t push it through the highs, especially with the low volume we are seeing.

We will be watching for sellers to come in and form resistance near here.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/15/21 Thursday.

Market is appearing to show more aggressive selling at the support levels which is putting pressure on buyers to absorb those orders.

If they keep coming and hitting the bid, buyers may have a hard time holding the market up.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update - Closing Trade.

Price is starting to come off the highs and sellers are showing up to the auction.

Possible targets are:

4153.00
4151.00
4149.75

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/16/21 Friday.

We made new highs at 4178.50 with price currently at 4172.50. It keeps following the upper trendline of the channel we drew a few days ago.

Now it is currently trading in a range with very low volume.

Yesterday’s Trading Sessions:

- YouTube

- YouTube

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Strategy for the rest of the day.

From the recent high at 4174.75 to the recent low at 4166.50, price retraced to the 76.4 line and has failed from that point.

There is some support at the 4168.00 price and if we don’t break that or the 4166.50 low, price may remain bullish approaching the close.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Closing trade.

Going into the close we have new highs, again, and price is pulling back to 4178.00.

The fib chart above showed long side potential when price failed to make, or even test, the lows at 4166.50

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Recap 4/16 ES Mini Futures.

Today’s trade has some good price action in the morning then traded in a range during the lunch hours.

Before price rallied to new highs, there was a slow move from the low of the range to the high of the range.

Price retraced from this move to the 61.8 level and then rallied. This was a great textbook trade, but difficult to find with all the choppiness.

Until next week.

Trading Session.

- YouTube

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/19/21

Overnight trade opened with a gap down but filled it right at the open, then sold off from the 4172.00 area to 4142.00.

Looks as if the market will form a range and possibly test the lows if there is enough volume to push price down.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Market Update 4/19/21 Monday.

We mainly traded in a range today with a few fakeouts on the upside and also downside.

Trading in a range can be profitable if the levels hold up and order flow validates the inability to break to the upside or downside.

However, if the market gains momentum price could get away from the entry very quickly.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.

[Ben_M]

Trading Plan 4/20/21 Tuesday.

Here is the current 15-minute chart for the ES Mini Futures:

We are currently trading above the POC at 4157.00. Price has retraced from the ATH of 4183.50 down to the recent low of 4144.50.

On a daily chart, if we consider the ATH as the high of the move, our fib levels come into play.

Going back to the hourly charts, if we look at the selloff from the high on 4/16 to the low of 4/19, the 50% fib retracement level is being tested.

A potential playout is if sellers can keep price below resistance with enough momentum to overpower passive buyers is a continuation of price movement to the downside.

The target here (length of the down move from 4/16 to today), shows a potential target of 4124.75. This target coincides with the daily fib retracement level of 38.2% (4122.00).

On the opposite side of that idea is price is retracing from the move up from 4/14 to 4/16. In which case price almost tested the 61.8 level and is moving up from there.

Either way, price will need to violate one of these structures to help us develop our plan.

Update coming in the morning.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures here represent an opinion. The placement of contingent orders by you or broker, or trading advisor, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Please conduct your own due diligence if Futures are an appropriate instrument for you.